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After Elections, Market Makes Gains While VIX Lowers

DATE POSTED:November 7, 2018

U.S. stocks are up significantly today after yesterday’s midterm election that saw Republicans maintain control of the Senate while Democrats took control of the House. This comes after a positive Tuesday for all three indices and with elections over focus will shift to the tail end of earnings season and the two-day Federal Reserve meeting. As expected, VIX lowered and the market has a high probability to trade between $270 and $281 for next two to three weeks. Do not chase market, investors should look to sell into rallies and buy into the selloffs. It will take some time for the market to break 50 days moving average on SPY, which is at $282 currently. For reference, SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

With a split Congress, analysts and strategists alike are projecting a slow legislative agenda with little large-scale changes before the 2020 election. If so, it is likely the Trump administration will turn to federal concerns they can address with executive power. These include China, Iran, and likely further talks with North Korea. Trump’s post-election press conference addressed some of these issues, alluding to a likely meeting with North Korea in 2019, reinforcement on Iran pressure, and continued trade talks with China. This is providing some optimism in the market but will take time to play out. For now, investors have turned their attention to the Federal Reserve meeting.

The two-day meeting will likely end without an interest rate hike but will provide plenty of data and sentiment for traders to look over just as third-quarter earnings are slowing down. Some big-name movers include Office Depot, which soared over 20% today after the company announced earnings today that beat the highest of expectations, Dish Network also gained 2% but earnings report did not meet expectations. A handful of energy sector stocks received a nice boost after the rejection of a Colorado bill initiative that would’ve limited oil and gas drilling in the state. With over half of earnings released, there are still a few big names left to report, including AMC, Activision Blizzard, Centurylink, NRG Energy,  Dropbox, Redfin, Disney and more. Globally, European markets are up today while Asian markets are modestly down.

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.53% moves to +0.41% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,759.74. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On October 30th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for HCP Inc. (HCP). ActiveTrader is included in all Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.

Trade Breakdown

HCP entered the forecasted Entry 1 price range of $27.02 (± 0.14) in its first hour of trading and hit its Target price of $27.29 that hour, reaching a high of $27.84 for the trading day. The Stop Loss was set at $26.75.

You Don’t Want to Miss This!

Today only, we are going to do something we RARELY do!

We are offering LIFETIME ACCESS to our Stock Forecast Toolbox Membership!

This means that you will get Lifetime Access to our entire suite of trading tools, and after your initial payment, you will never be billed again for as long as you remain a member!

Click Here To Sign Up… Thursday Morning Featured Stock

Our featured stock for Thursday is Starbucks Corporation (SBUX). SBUX is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

The stock is trading at $68.16 at the time of publication, up 3.26% from the open with a +1.79% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

Oil

West Texas Intermediate for December delivery (CLZ8) is priced at $61.51 per barrel, down 1.00% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $13.06 at the time of publication, down 0.91% from the open. Vector figures show -1.47% today.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for December gold (GCZ8) is up 0.06% at $1,227.00 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $116.03, down 0.01% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.40% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.29% at 3.22% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.16% at 3.44% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.55% moves to -0.02% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 16.93% at $16.54 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $15.91 with a vector of -6.62%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

 

You Don’t Want to Miss This!

Today only, we are going to do something we RARELY do!

We are offering LIFETIME ACCESS to our Stock Forecast Toolbox Membership!

This means that you will get Lifetime Access to our entire suite of trading tools, and after your initial payment, you will never be billed again for as long as you remain a member!

Click Here To Sign Up…